Sunday 10 September 2023

 Dalio's "World order changes" that are underway

Ray Dalio has earned credibility by successfully building an investment company in the U.S. For some time, he has been publishing his methods and sometimes an opinion he has derived, for the benefit of the world. 

Even Ray knows that it is impossible to accurately predict things but in this summary he notes "five big forces that have intensified to reach levels that are consistent with past big changes in the world order and are driving just about everything. He published his description of these changes in April and events since then make them worth watching.

Further detail via his websites and book e.g. - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/where-we-big-cycle-brink-period-great-disorder-ray-dalio/?published=t

  1. The creation of enormous amounts of debt bought by central banks via their printing of money and buying the debt (i.e., monetizing debt)—in other words, the government financing itself in a big way by both borrowing a lot and printing a lot of money.  
  2. Big conflicts within countries (now most importantly the US) prompted by the largest wealth and values gaps in our lifetimes, which are leading to the emergence of populists of the left and the right who are fighting with each other.
  3. Big conflicts between countries arising from the rise of countries (now most importantly China) that are becoming roughly powerful enough to be able to challenge the existing world powers (most importantly the US) and the world order (most importantly the American world order).
  4. Acts of nature (droughts, floods, and pandemics)—i.e., climate change.
  5. Technology changes—e.g., the First and Second Industrial Revolution, computing and the internet, AI.hey are worth watching

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